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ISLAMABAD, Pakistan & KABUL, Afghanistan – March 12, 2026 – The interim government in Afghanistan has formally accused Pakistan of conducting air attacks on residential areas within Kabul and Kandahar provinces. This grave accusation, made public by Afghan officials as of March 2026, has been met with a swift and categorical denial from Islamabad, further deepening the diplomatic rift between the two neighbouring nations. The alleged strikes, if confirmed, represent an unprecedented escalation in cross-border hostilities, threatening to destabilise an already fragile regional security landscape.

  • Afghanistan's interim government claims Pakistan conducted air attacks in Kabul and Kandahar on March 12, 2026.
  • Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has vehemently denied the allegations, reiterating its respect for Afghanistan's sovereignty.
  • The accusations follow a period of heightened tensions over cross-border militant attacks, primarily attributed to the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
  • The incident has drawn international concern, with calls for de-escalation and diplomatic resolution.
  • Expert analysis suggests significant implications for regional security, bilateral trade, and humanitarian efforts.

Why Have Pakistan-Afghanistan Relations Deteriorated?

The current accusations are not an isolated incident but rather the latest flashpoint in a progressively deteriorating relationship between Pakistan and the Taliban-led administration in Afghanistan since August 2021. At the heart of this complex issue lies Pakistan's persistent concern over the sanctuary allegedly provided to the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its affiliates on Afghan soil. Islamabad asserts that the Afghan interim government has failed to curb the activities of these militant groups, which have been responsible for a significant surge in terrorist attacks within Pakistan.

Data from the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) indicates a stark rise in terror incidents in Pakistan, with a reported 60% increase in 2023 compared to the previous year, many of which are linked to the TTP operating from across the Durand Line. Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has repeatedly conveyed its concerns to Kabul, urging decisive action against these groups. For instance, a diplomatic démarche was issued in late 2025 following a series of attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, explicitly citing intelligence suggesting TTP coordination from Afghan territory. Pakistan's government, under Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, has faced immense domestic pressure to address the escalating security threat, particularly in its western provinces.

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What are the Specific Allegations and Pakistan's Response?

According to a spokesperson for the Afghan Ministry of Defence, the alleged air attacks on March 12, 2026, targeted civilian homes in the Bagrami district of Kabul province and the Spin Boldak district of Kandahar province. While specific casualty figures were not immediately released by the Afghan side, they claimed the strikes caused significant damage and loss of life among non-combatants. The spokesperson, speaking to local media outlets, condemned the alleged actions as a blatant violation of Afghanistan's sovereignty and international law, warning of severe consequences for bilateral relations.

In response, Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, through a detailed press statement issued hours after the Afghan claims, categorically denied any involvement in air attacks on Afghan territory. A senior official within the Ministry, speaking on background to PakishNews, stated, "Pakistan has always respected the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all nations, including Afghanistan. These allegations are baseless and an attempt to deflect attention from the real issue of cross-border terrorism originating from Afghan soil." The statement further reiterated Pakistan's commitment to fighting terrorism within its borders and its expectation for the Afghan interim government to fulfil its international obligations by preventing its territory from being used against any other country. As PakishNews previously reported, Pakistan has consistently called for a cooperative approach to border security.

Expert Analysis on the Escalation

“This latest accusation, regardless of its veracity, marks a dangerous new low in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations,” states Dr. Ayesha Siddiqa, a prominent defence analyst based in Islamabad. “The rhetoric from both sides is hardening, and the space for diplomatic engagement is shrinking. For Pakistan, the TTP threat is existential, demanding a robust response. The challenge is how to address this without further alienating the Afghan interim government or destabilising the border region further.” Dr. Siddiqa highlighted the strategic dilemma Pakistan faces: inaction risks domestic criticism and continued attacks, while overt cross-border action carries significant diplomatic and geopolitical risks.

Ambassador (Retd.) Riaz Khokhar, a former Pakistani diplomat with extensive experience in regional affairs, offered a foreign policy perspective. “The international community, including major powers like China and the United States, has a vested interest in regional stability. This incident will undoubtedly trigger calls for de-escalation and mediation,” Ambassador Khokhar told PakishNews. “The fundamental issue remains the TTP. Until the Afghan interim government demonstrates verifiable action against these groups, trust will continue to erode, and such accusations, whether founded or not, will become more frequent. In a related development covered by PakishNews, international bodies have repeatedly urged regional dialogue.”

Adding to this, Mr. Kamal Alam, a regional security expert at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), commented, “The use of air power, even alleged, indicates a significant shift in the calculus. While Pakistan has previously conducted targeted strikes against TTP hideouts within its own tribal areas, any action perceived as being across the Durand Line would be a major departure and could invite retaliatory measures. The immediate impact is a further breakdown of communication channels, making it harder to address the root causes of instability.”

Who is Affected and How?

The immediate and most tragic impact of any alleged air attacks falls upon the civilian populations in the affected areas. Reports, though unverified, of civilian casualties and property damage would exacerbate humanitarian concerns in Afghanistan, a nation already grappling with severe economic hardship and a fragile social fabric. The fear of future cross-border actions could lead to internal displacement and further complicate humanitarian aid efforts.

Beyond the direct human cost, the escalating tensions severely impact bilateral relations. Trade between Pakistan and Afghanistan, which stood at approximately US$1.5 billion in 2022-23, according to the State Bank of Pakistan, could suffer significantly. Border crossings, vital for transit trade and movement of people, are often subject to closures or heightened security measures during periods of high tension, disrupting economic activity and exacerbating supply chain issues. Pakistan currently hosts an estimated 3.7 million Afghan refugees, and any further deterioration in relations could impact their status and future.

Regionally, the situation threatens to undermine efforts towards stability. Countries like China, which has invested heavily in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and Iran, which shares a long border with Afghanistan, are keen observers. An unstable Afghanistan, coupled with cross-border hostilities, presents a formidable challenge to regional connectivity and economic integration initiatives. The international community, including the United Nations and various Western powers, views this escalation with alarm, fearing a wider regional conflict.

What Happens Next?

The immediate aftermath of these accusations will likely see a flurry of diplomatic activity, albeit potentially behind closed doors. The United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) is expected to call for restraint and investigation. Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs will likely continue its diplomatic offensive, presenting its case to international forums and allies, reiterating its stance on combating terrorism.

A critical point of observation will be the response of the Afghan interim government. Will they escalate their rhetoric, or will they seek to engage in a structured dialogue? The pressure from their own population and hardline elements within their ranks will be considerable. Furthermore, the effectiveness of border management on both sides of the 2,670-kilometre-long Durand Line will be under intense scrutiny. Pakistan has been actively fencing its border with Afghanistan, completing over 90% of the project by late 2025, a move aimed at curbing illegal crossings and militant infiltration.

The future trajectory of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations hinges on whether a mechanism for dialogue can be established to address Pakistan's legitimate security concerns regarding the TTP, while respecting Afghanistan's sovereignty. Without a credible commitment from Kabul to dismantle TTP sanctuaries and prevent cross-border attacks, the cycle of accusation and denial, with the potential for further escalation, is likely to persist. Stakeholders should closely watch for any third-party mediation efforts or a shift in the Afghan interim government's policy towards militant groups operating from its territory. Read more on regional security challenges at PakishNews.

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Frequently Asked Questions

❓ What led to Afghanistan's accusation against Pakistan of air attacks?

Afghanistan's interim government accused Pakistan of air attacks in Kabul and Kandahar on March 12, 2026, following a period of escalating tensions. This friction primarily stems from Pakistan's long-standing concerns regarding the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other militant groups allegedly operating from Afghan soil, which Islamabad claims are responsible for a significant increase in terror incidents, including a 60% rise in 2023, within Pakistan.

❓ How has Pakistan responded to the allegations of air strikes?

Pakistan has vehemently and categorically denied Afghanistan's accusations of conducting air attacks. Through its Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Islamabad stated that it respects Afghanistan's sovereignty and territorial integrity, labelling the claims as 'baseless.' Pakistan has consistently maintained its commitment to combating terrorism within its own borders and has urged the Afghan interim government to fulfil its international obligations by preventing its territory from being used by militant groups.

❓ What are the broader implications of these escalating tensions for the region?

The escalating tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan carry significant regional implications, potentially impacting bilateral trade, which was around US$1.5 billion in 2022-23, and exacerbating humanitarian challenges in Afghanistan. Experts like Dr. Ayesha Siddiqa warn of a dangerous new low in relations, stressing that without a credible mechanism to address Pakistan’s security concerns regarding the TTP, the cycle of accusations and potential for further escalation is likely to persist, threatening broader regional stability and connectivity initiatives like CPEC.